COP26
Success or Failure?
Some Quick Analysis
This Climate Site is primarily intended to provide you with a scan of reactions to COP26, rather than focusing on analysis by the Climatographers. So we’ll keep this part of the page very brief:
It’s very easy to think about the “success or failure” of COP26, but as implied by the fact that this is COP26, we think it makes more sense to think about it from the standpoint of Climate Chess. In that context, did COP26 advance some of the hundreds of Team Urgency pieces on the Climate Chessboard? Absolutely. Did it accomplish nearly as much as it might have if Team Urgency were actually playing Climate Chess the way Team No-Urgency is? No. Could any COP “win” the Climate Chess game? No. Nor could any piece of national legislation, even though that doesn’t stop the constant search for silver bullets.
To illustrate the trickiness of characterizing COP outcomes, it’s important to remember that while COP21 is generally as a key success, it actually represented the failure of the first 20 COPs to be able to agree on anything really binding. From the standpoint of climate change mitigation, switching to “let’s just all make voluntary commitments” wasn’t necessarily a great step forward.
In thinking specifically about COP26 and its relationship to COP21, we thought the point made in 2021/11 The Cop26 message? We are trusting big business, not states, to fix the climate crisis is interesting (We’ll have excerpts in the list below shortly). If COP21 represented a transition from thinking about climate mitigation from “binding commitments” to “voluntary commitments,” does COP26 represent a transition from thinking about climate change mitigation as something that societal decision-makers are expected to solve, to something that business decision-makers are expected to solve? To be sure, this question has been around for years, and is extensively explored in the Climate Web.
This Climate Site
The Climatographers have created this temporary Climate Site to pull together feedback on the recently conclued COP26 in Glasgow. You can simply scan the page to get a sense of the very wide range of opinion coming out of COP26.
This page is primarily intended to help people expand their perceptions of what did and didn’t happen at COP26, and perhaps to help combat the confirmation bias we all suffer from. Could this information be organized in a much more sophisticated way to appeal to specific audiences. Sure, and if you’re interested in having us re-organize the information to that end we’re happy to talk!
Each quote or piece of extracted material contains a link back to its spot in the Climate Web, making it easy for you to track ideas back to their original source. But beware that it can be a bit overwhelming at first glance. If you’ve downloaded the Climate Web exploration of the materials is instant, if you’re accessing the Climate Web on-line it’s a much slower process. Which is why we’ve made it so easy for you to get your own slightly slimmed down fully customizable copy of the **Climate Web, as well as a read-only but always up-to-date copy of the **Climate Web.
All of the COP26 responses below have been individually extracted and curated fom the large collection of COP-26 stories organized here in the Climate Web.
Note that if you’re specifically interested in COP26 outcomes related to Article 6 of the UNFCCC and the future of market mechanisms, we’ve organized that insight separately here.
The excerpts below aren’t necessarily in a particular order, although that may change over time. We also thought it would be useful to include some of the graphics from a briefing report released by Climate Action Tracker midway through the Glasgow meetings. You can click on any of the links to jump to the briefing itself.
The Climatographers
Lead-In
2021 Status of NDC Updates
2021 CAT_Glasgows 2030 credibility gap
2021 The 2030 Emissions Gap
2021 CAT_Glasgows 2030 credibility gap
2021 The Adequacy of National Net Zero Commitments
2021 CAT_Glasgows 2030 credibility gap
2021 The impact of NDC updates
2021 CAT_Glasgows 2030 credibility gap
CAT’s Climate Finance Ratings
2021 CAT_Glasgows 2030 credibility gap
2021 Warming projections to 2021 - alternative scenarios
2021 CAT_Glasgows 2030 credibility gap
What’s the real potential for methane and forestry?
2021 CAT_Glasgows 2030 credibility gap
George Monbiot: The Glasgow Climate Pact, for all its restrained and diplomatic language, looks like a suicide pact. After so many squandered years of denial, distraction and delay, it’s too late for incremental change.
2021/11 After the failure of Cop26, there’s only one last hope for our survival
"A paradigm shift has happened," said Svenja Telle, an emerging tech analyst at PitchBook. "Before, climate finance was seen as a task without returns. It was a sinkhole. Now climate finance is seen as one of the most profitable investment strategies out there. That changes everything."
2021/11 At COP26, investors steal the stage from diplomats
Frances Seymour, WRI: “It’s great that forests were given a big place on the stage at Glasgow, that they had a head of state level segment on forest ... When you look back over the past few decades of climate action, forests had been the Cinderella neglected step sister.”
2021/11 Behind grand declarations at COP26, a long track record of failure
Frances Seymour, WRI: “Many of us who’ve been in this business for several decades have seen this movie again and again and again, and the ending never changes. Pledges are made and then nothing happens.”
2021/11 Behind grand declarations at COP26, a long track record of failure
Steve Trent, CEO of the Environmental Justice Foundation: “It’s not enough to publish ‘net zero by 2050’ plans if those plans rely on creative carbon accounting over real decarbonisation across the whole of our economies.”
2021/11 Behind grand declarations at COP26, a long track record of failure
Two days after Glasgow ended Indonesia’s environment minister “walked back her country’s commitment to its core objectives, calling the proposal to end deforestation by 2030 there “inappropriate and unfair.””
2021/11 Behind grand declarations at COP26, a long track record of failure
Joe Eisen, executive director of Rainforest Foundation UK: “REDD has proved to be pretty ineffective over the past 14 years, and without reviewing the reasons why it’s been ineffective, all of a sudden we’re seeing a huge upscaling through LEAF ... And there’s serious concerns about its viability and how it might incentivize state capture of land.”
2021/11 Behind grand declarations at COP26, a long track record of failure
1. The #COP26 outcome reflects a deep and long-overdue change in the architecture for climate policy, led in large part by President Biden and his Climate Envoy John Kerry.
Durwood Zaelke on LinkedIn 11/14/2021
2. The new climate architecture includes, first, the acknowledgment that there is now a climate emergency that will quickly become catastrophic and unmanageable without fast mitigation, a focus on 1.5°C as the outer limit for warming, and recognition that this, the 2020s, must be the decisive decade for fast climate action.
Durwood Zaelke on LinkedIn 11/14/2021
3. The new architecture includes the importance of cutting non-CO2 climate emissions, as well as CO2, with a specific focus on #methane, a super climate pollutant responsible for nearly half of today’s warming. Cutting methane is the single biggest and fastest mitigation action the world can take to keep warming from breaching the 1.5°C guardrail.
Durwood Zaelke on LinkedIn 11/14/2021
4. Another aspect of the new architecture is a shift to sectoral agreements—a second front in the climate war, based on strategies that focus on individual sectors of the economy, inspired by the Montreal Protocol.
Durwood Zaelke on LinkedIn 11/14/2021
5. With these outcomes, veterans of COPs will see the glass as more than half full: the climate emergency now acknowledged and the path laid out for keeping the 1.5°C target alive. For young people, they’ll wonder why we’re not taking even stronger action to solve this emergency. They will surely maintain their anger and demands to hold leaders accountable. Without them, we’ll never reach a safer, more equitable future.
Durwood Zaelke on LinkedIn 11/14/2021
Global temperature likely to exceed 2oC under even most optimistic scenario
2021/11 Cop26: world on track for disastrous heating of more than 2.4C, says key report
Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: :This COP will be remembered as the Methane Moment — the year this long-overlooked climate pollutant finally received the attention it requires.”
2021/11 COP26 Ends with a Strong Result on Carbon Markets and an International Call to Action for the Most Urgent Climate Priorities
Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: “The sum of COP26 went beyond the two weeks in Glasgow. The COP drove critical announcements long before delegates were on the ground.”
2021/11 COP26 Ends with a Strong Result on Carbon Markets and an International Call to Action for the Most Urgent Climate Priorities
Kelley Kizzier, VP global climate EDF: The Glasgow pact “eliminates double counting for compliance markets and establishes a strong framework to ensure appropriate accounting for voluntary carbon markets that also supports emission reductions in countries hosting carbon market activities.”
2021/11 COP26 Ends with a Strong Result on Carbon Markets and an International Call to Action for the Most Urgent Climate Priorities
Agnes Callamard, Amnesty Int’l Sec’y General: “The UNFCCC ... has betrayed the very foundations on which the United Nations was built – a pledge first not to countries, nor states, but to the people.”
2021/11 COP26: Leaders’ catastrophic failure on climate shows they have forgotten who they should serve and protect – humanity at large
Dirk Forrister, IETA CEO: Article 6 agreement “establishes an integrity framework to support the expansion of carbon markets to help governments and businesses deliver higher climate ambitions.”
2021/11 COP26: Nations strike deal on international carbon markets at Glasgow summit
Kelley Kizzier, VP for global climate EDF: "The agreed Article 6 rules give countries the tools they need for environmental integrity, to avoid double counting and ultimately to clear a path to get private capital flowing to developing countries.”
2021/11 COP26: Nations strike deal on international carbon markets at Glasgow summit
Countries will have to take a detailed inventory of their greenhouse gas emissions by 2024, which will be used as the basis for future emissions cuts.
2021/11 COP26: What the UN climate conference failed to accomplish
More than 40 countries have committed to ending their domestic use of coal for electricity, and 25 countries agreed to stop financing coal power in developing countries.
2021/11 COP26: What the UN climate conference failed to accomplish
UN climate events have evolved as urgency increases: COP26 meeting, with 39,000 registered attendees, was the largest climate meeting in history.
2021/11 COP26: What the UN climate conference failed to accomplish
New alliance established at COP26 - the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance, launched by Costa Rica and Denmark, commits members to phasing out new licenses for oil and gas production. Members currently include France, Greenland, Ireland, Quebec, Sweden, and Wales
2021/11 COP26: What the UN climate conference failed to accomplish
More than 130 countries said they will zero out their impact on the climate in the next half-century, and most countries strengthened their pledges to cut emissions.
2021/11 COP26: What the UN climate conference failed to accomplish
More than 100 countries, including Russia, Brazil, and the US, pledged to end deforestation by 2030.
2021/11 COP26: What the UN climate conference failed to accomplish
“It could have been a success, it looked like it would be a success, but it is a success no more.”
2021 Carter_COP26 "Glasgow Pact" Global Suicide Pact
“The Glasgow bridge is at best a bridge to nowhere, and really it’s a bridge to oblivion.”
2021 Carter_COP26 "Glasgow Pact" Global Suicide Pact
“The Glasgow pact is a suicide pact because because it’s an agreement to do nothing but to keep on discussing, keep on having so-called work programs, . . . “
2021 Carter_COP26 "Glasgow Pact" Global Suicide Pact
Making matters worse, “Biden’s climate and social spending plan,” the Times noted, “does not eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels.” Those subsides total about $20 billion per year. So we ordinary folk pay oil big-shots to set our atmosphere on fire. Biden won’t fix that. Period. How about them apples?
2021/11 Facing Climate Collapse at the Eleventh Hour
Meanwhile at the Glasgow climate summit, Biden opened by claiming the U.S. would keep its promise to slash greenhouse emissions by more than half by the end of the decade. Does he know something we don’t? ‘Cause by the end of the decade a Trump clone will likely have been in power. Unless the Dems can thwart the Cro-Magnon GOP base, Biden’s promises aren’t worth the paper they’re written on.
2021/11 Facing Climate Collapse at the Eleventh Hour
George Monbiot: What a total fiasco it is. This is getting very close to the last possible chance, and instead of the sweeping change which we need, like leaving all fossil fuels in the ground by 2030, not even on the table, not a prospect.
2021/11 George Monbiot's final word on COP26
George Monbiot: And instead they’re giving us this pathetic, limp rag of a document. Demonstrating they are here not to protect life on Earth, but to protect the fossil fuel industry from challenge.
2021/11 George Monbiot's final word on COP26
But to ask the human species to give up energy use, which is what is implied by many of the deep reduction targets in a short space of time, is distracting science fiction. These challenges are made even more difficult by having nearly 8bn mouths to feed today, with another 2bn by 2050.
Guy Turner on LinkedIn
The Glasgow pact “notes with deep regret that the goal of developed country Parties to mobilize jointly USD 100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation has not yet been met.”
2021/11 COP26: What the UN climate conference failed to accomplish
COP26 is over. And we are now on track for global heating that exceeds 2oC. At this temperature, up to 99% of coral reefs will die. Are we comfortable with this truth.
Lewis Pugh on LinkedIn
Jason Box: The lack of a science-based response is alarming
2021/11 In a Stark Letter, and In Person, Researchers Urge World Leaders at COP26 to Finally Act on Science
Brandon Wu, the director of policy and campaigns at ActionAid, was highly critical of those who had vilified India for the phrasing of the agreement. Wu, like others, pointed out that the agreement had only targeted coal while avoiding mention of other fossil fuels such as natural gas and oil, which are used in abundance by the US and European countries.
2021/11 India criticised over coal at Cop26 – but real villain was climate injustice
As regards all the most important pledges to phase out coal, reduce subsidies and protect forests, Glasgow failed.
2021/11 It could have been worse, but our leaders failed us at Cop26. That’s the truth of it
The only way 1.5C can be achieved must now be for those countries who want progress to work outside the UN process.
2021/11 It could have been worse, but our leaders failed us at Cop26. That’s the truth of it
Any chance of halving fast-rising emissions by 2030 – the declared aim of the talks – is now negligible.
2021/11 It could have been worse, but our leaders failed us at Cop26. That’s the truth of it
Key COP26 achievements
2021/11 Net Zero - only blah, blah, blah?
The key points of the Glasgow Pact
2021/11 Net Zero - only blah, blah, blah?
By the end of the first week, the latest commitments from various countries for the first time appeared to offer a chance of keeping the warming of the planet below 2 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial levels. That’s half of what we were heading toward prior to the 2015 Paris summit (COP21).
2021/11 Mann and Sassol: Glasgow's hope at a critical moment in the climate battle
But the biggest breakthrough was unexpected. On Wednesday, China and the U.S. — the world’s two largest climate polluters — said they would commit to “enhanced climate actions” to keep global warming to the limits set in the Paris agreement. Most critically, the statement included a commitment to phase down coal. And while we can’t yet quantify the impacts of this development, it presumably moves us closer to the 1.5 Celsius goal. This level of U.S.-China cooperation quickly shifted the entire COP26 narrative and outlook.
2021/11 Mann and Sassol: Glasgow's hope at a critical moment in the climate battle
COP26 president Alok Sharma’s apology goes to the heart of the goals of COP26, that it would deliver outcomes matching the urgent “code red” action needed
2021/11 The ultimate guide to why the COP26 summit ended in failure and disappointment (despite a few bright spots)
This COP has been like none other. We have seen that alongside the core negotiations, public-private co-operation has delivered great progress.
2021/11 WBCSD on the Glasgow Climate Pact
COP26 will be seen as an inflection point for global climate recovery.
2021/11 WBCSD on the Glasgow Climate Pact
That is why ahead of COP27, through our Business Manifesto for Climate Recovery, we are calling for the development of a new global framework of Corporate Determined Contributions to capture business progress and delivery against their targets, ambitions and aims.
2021/11 WBCSD on the Glasgow Climate Pact
Greta Thunberg on Twitter: “The #COP26 is over. Here’s a brief summary: Blah, blah, blah. But the real work continues outside these halls. And we will never give up, ever.”
2021/11 Greta Thunberg on next move in climate-change fight: ‘COP26 is over, blah, blah, blah… We will never give up’
Excessive and unrealistic expectations risk a response that says it's not worth trying. This would be a disaster. This is why the multiple supporting agreements achieved at Glasgow on methane, forestry, finance and carbon markets, were a major success. These commitments need to be delivered but together they keep us moving forward.
Guy Turner on LinkedIn
More of the bla bla bla we know very well. Same/similar pledges from governments and corporates going on for more than a decade to halt deforestation in 2020 (ohh missed!), 2025 (ohh we will missed it), 2030… (we will certainly miss it). How can we achieve something we are consistently missing by using the same methods: press releases…!
Juan Carlos Gonzalez Aybar on LinkedIn
The #COP26 triggered frustration, anger and despair shared widely by many of us. However, we should acknowledge and embrace the above as we move ahead with unstoppable #climateaction and ensuring/scrutinising that promises are lived up to.
Zsolt Lengyel on LinkedIn
Those critical of #COP26 outcomes should really think and reflect on how one Glasgow week delivered 3 time more ambition increase than 6 years of NDC adjustments!
Zsolt Lengyel on LinkedIn
We need perspective and patience. My take is that #glasgowcop26 was a triumph. Those who say we can switch from fossils over night are deluded. Our use of energy is more profound than people think - it defines us as a species.
Guy Turner on LinkedIn
When it comes to COP26 I read a lot of disappointment, and I fully understand it given the seriousness of the climate crisis and the limited time window we have. However, even if "phase out" has been replaced by "phase down", the fact that fossil fuels made it into the actual text will be remembered as the beginning of a landslide that will make them obsolete in the next decade.
Marco Magini on LinkedIn
Thomas Joseph, Hoopa tribe, California: “Cop26 leaders signed an agreement that will entrench sacrificing Indigenous people … [but] failed to include real solutions to meet the climate chaos that many of our frontline Indigenous communities are facing.”
2021/11 ‘A death sentence’: Indigenous climate activists denounce Cop26 deal
Carbon Brief estimates that these pledges and NDC updates would – if fully implemented – reduce global temperatures by around 0.1C relative to 2030 commitments in place prior to COP26.
2021/11 Analysis: Do COP26 promises keep global warming below 2oC?
Inger Anderson, exec dir UNEP: these new near-term commitments are, “frankly, an elephant giving birth to a mouse”.
2021/11 Analysis: Do COP26 promises keep global warming below 2oC?
The effects of fossil-fuel finance and reduced deforestation pledges are more challenging to model, but any additional emissions reductions beyond those already committed to under existing NDCs are expected to be small.
2021/11 Analysis: Do COP26 promises keep global warming below 2oC?
Collin Rees, senior campaigner with nonprofit research group Oil Change International: “The industry is pushing to lock in this production, pushing to continue to extract oil and gas long beyond when we know that we can allow them to do that,” he said. “That’s why this is such a big deal. This is the first time at the international level that that has been recognized — that not only do we have to address the consumption of fossil fuels, but we really do have to limit production as well.”
2021/11 At COP26, 7 countries initiate the beginning of the end of fossil fuels
Lars Koch, policy director at ActionAid Denmark re oil-producing countries and Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance: “If they don’t become members of this alliance, what they are actually saying is, ‘We don’t mean what we say about 1.5,’” he said. “It is just pure, deep greenwashing.”
2021/11 At COP26, 7 countries initiate the beginning of the end of fossil fuels
James Thornton ClientEarth CEO on overall summit issues: “Negotiations have failed to secure an agreement to end coal or ‘wind down’ the use of oil and gas. Countries in the Global South that have done little to exacerbate global warming are not seeing the $100 billion per year in climate financing that was promised previously. And serious doubt remains over whether limiting warming to 1.5C – the key metric for survival for many climate vulnerable communities – can be achieved.”
2021/11 ClientEarth reaction to COP26 climate summit
James Thornton, ClientEarth CEO on the overall summit: “The push for pre-2030 action, including a new annual high level Ministerial meeting from 2022, will further highlight governments that are delaying action. Finally, the recognition of the role of Indigenous peoples and youth in climate action is also a first and could provide momentum to legal cases that challenge governments over their failures.”
2021/11 ClientEarth reaction to COP26 climate summit
Delegates associated with fossil fuel industries outnumbered national delegations at COP26
2021/11 COP26: Fossil fuel industry has largest delegation at climate summit
Nick Molho, executive director of Aldersgate Group: the outcome of COP26 “made it crystal clear to businesses that they need to move away from fossil fuels.”
2021/11 COP26 Glasgow Climate Pact Wants Businesses to Speed Up Net-Zero Plans
“We're delusional if we think we can save our climate by tweaking a system that rewards exploitation and that measures success with planet destroying increases in GDP. “
2021/11 Post COP26 - it's now obvious - the mainstream has an evil agenda. - by Brad Zarnett - Climate Change Is Coming For Us
“We must build connections with those who understand the urgency and the truth of our situation. The mainstream is not our ally and predatory capitalism can never provide a pathway to a stable climate.”
2021/11 Post COP26 - it's now obvious - the mainstream has an evil agenda. - by Brad Zarnett - Climate Change Is Coming For Us
Talk of carbon pricing evokes the bitter memory of shock therapy in eastern Europe and the developing world. BlackRock’s backstop idea is the logic of the 2008 bank bailouts expanded to the global level – socialise the risks, privatise the profits.
2021/11 The Cop26 message? We are trusting big business, not states, to fix the climate crisis
As a climate scientist, watching COP26 conclude without commitments to end carbon dioxide emissions was like watching a group of firefighters standing around squabbling in front of burning houses with children inside.
2021/11 The failure at Glasgow and what needs to happen next
Unless COP26’s failure is recognized as failure, there is no way to learn from it
2021/11 The failure at Glasgow and what needs to happen next
Chinese delegates have made clear to negotiators in Glasgow behind closed doors that when it comes to returning to the table with more aggressive goals, it "has a problem,” one person familiar with the discussions said.
2021/11 US and China step to forefront as climate talks near end game
By forcing Parties to “revisit” their NDCs before next year’s COP, the Pact will induce some countries to reconsider their targets and redraw their emissions pathways. And this will cascade down to business, likely pushing many organizations to accelerate their own decarbonization plans.
2021/11 What the Glasgow Climate Pact means for business
By laying out the “45% by 2030” emissions target in black and white, the Pact has set a clear benchmark for evaluating the credibility of businesses’ climate transition plans. Those that fail to integrate this target could find themselves the target of climate activists, investors, and even legislators.
2021/11 What the Glasgow Climate Pact means for business
The offsets agreement will “enable governments to trade emissions with confidence, it also provides a framework against which the credibility and robustness of voluntary carbon markets in the private sector can be judged. This should help bring order to the rash of trading initiatives that have flourished in the years since the Paris Agreement, and incentivize businesses to produce the carbon offsets sold through them.”
2021/11 What the Glasgow Climate Pact means for business
If targets under international law, with a much more universal commitment, have not been met, what are the chances that a non-legally binding commitment (which the Glasgow Declaration is) will be?
2021/11 Will the Glasgow Declaration save the world’s forests?
Reversing deforestation and land degradation requires challenging the very fundamentals of a global economy and governance that centralizes power in the hands of governments and capitalist corporations.
2021/11 Will the Glasgow Declaration save the world’s forests?